The polls are all over the map as we approach the 2024 US Presidential election. A WPA Intelligence survey released on January 13 found that Joe Biden was leading President Trump in a hypothetical matchup 49% to 41%, but would lose to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 45% to 42%. However, just days later, a Morning Consult poll revealed that Trump had a 17-point lead over DeSantis in a potential GOP primary matchup, with 48% compared to DeSantis’ 31%.

But while polling data can be useful and interesting, it’s often not entirely accurate. This has been especially true in recent election cycles due to two primary issues – low response rates from landlines and people being hesitant to share their true political views. Even though pollsters are still using landlines, which many Americans have long since moved away from, they may also skew the numbers they receive by taking data from 36% of Democrats, 29% of Republicans, and 35% of self-described independents. This can heavily influence their findings.

Indeed, in 2016 polls were very wrong about who would win key swing states like Florida and North Carolina that ended up giving Trump his Electoral College victory despite his loss in the popular vote. Similarly, most pre-election polls for 2020 overestimated Joe Biden’s national lead over President Trump and incorrectly indicated that he would likely win or it would be close race when it was not…or so the story goes.

Due to these issues Pew Research noted that “polling is irrevocably broken,” even going so far as saying it should be “blown up.” It’s also important to remember that surveys usually only question people who are current eligible voters, meaning those 80 million Americans who didn’t cast ballots last year wouldn’t be included. Thus there is always the chance of underrepresentation among certain groups like nonvoters or Republicans/conservatives leading to faulty conclusions.

In short we must take every poll with great caution; understanding their weaknesses and limitations given today’s political climate – especially considering there are still 656 days until Election Day 2024.