In a recent Cygnal poll, it has been revealed that former President Donald Trump currently holds a lead over President Joe Biden in 39 key battleground congressional districts across the United States. The data indicates that Trump leads Biden by a narrow margin of 45% to 44%, with 11% of respondents expressing uncertainty. This statistical edge is particularly pronounced among independents, where Trump maintains a 3-point lead in a hypothetical two-way matchup.

Interestingly, the poll explores the impact of introducing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the equation, revealing that it could further challenge Biden’s standing:

– Trump: 41%

– Biden: 37%

– RFK Jr.: 11%

– Undecided: 11%

Additionally, the survey suggests that the absence of Trump on the 2024 presidential ballot could result in a tied race between Biden and a non-Trump Republican, each polling at 40%, with an increase in undecided voters to 21%. Notably, a non-Trump Republican would enjoy a 12-point advantage over Biden among independents, emphasizing the influence Trump holds within the party.

Discussing the potential consequences of Trump not being on the ballot, Cygnal’s vice president of polling, Brock McCleary, observes, “Trump’s absence on the ballot would likely result in lower turnout. In other words, Republicans have more to lose than gain without Trump on the ballot.”

In terms of approval ratings from their respective first terms, the poll suggests that Trump outpaces Biden, holding a 45% approval rating compared to Biden’s 37%. Suburban voters, young voters, and Black voters also favor Trump over Biden in approval.

The survey identifies inflation as the top concern for battleground voters, particularly among independents. Republicans are trusted more than Democrats on critical issues such as border security, with independents leading the way in their preference for Republicans by significant margins – plus-38 points on border security, plus-22 points on crime, and plus-11 points on inflation.

The Cygnal poll, conducted from January 16-18, surveyed 1,500 likely general election voters, primarily white (76.9%). Suburban voters made up the majority at 54.6%, and 23.9% identified as independent. The margin of error for the poll is plus/minus 2.45 points, with nearly a third (29.8%) of respondents being 65 years old or older.