The stability of Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R) Speakership is now hanging by a thread. Threats from within his own party and mounting pressure from conservative demands have put McCarthy in a precarious position. If he fails to meet the expectations of the conservative wing and relies on Democratic support to avoid a government shutdown, the inevitable consequence could be the loss of his leadership position in the House.

Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) has boldly stated that a threat to McCarthy’s Speakership is “inevitable” if he does not address the concerns of the conservative wing. Jackson, a member of the Freedom Caucus, along with other right-leaning representatives, is making reasonable demands to tackle pressing issues. Ignoring these demands could lead to detrimental consequences for McCarthy’s leadership.

The conservative House Freedom Caucus has made it clear that they will oppose any stopgap government funding that does not include policy measures related to border security, the Department of Justice, and what they refer to as “woke” policies in the Pentagon. These demands reflect their commitment to securing the border, fighting human trafficking, and preventing the influx of dangerous fentanyl into communities.

Amidst this backdrop, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and 14 other Texas Republicans, including Jackson, have pledged to vote against any continuing resolution or Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill that does not take necessary action to secure the border. Jackson himself has vowed to vote against any continuing resolution that does not significantly reduce funding for the Department of Justice. These steadfast positions are putting immense pressure on House GOP leaders, as they can only afford to lose a few votes before relying on Democratic support to pass bills.

The House GOP leaders are treading on thin ice, as the Freedom Caucus holds significant influence with their voting power. Any official position of the caucus requires the support of at least 80 percent of its members. With around three dozen Republicans in the Freedom Caucus, they possess enough votes to sink any party-line measure. McCarthy finds himself in a precarious position, as he can ill afford to disregard the concerns of the conservative wing or rely solely on Democratic support.

The increasing pressure from conservatives has prompted McCarthy to consider passing a short-term solution, known as a continuing resolution, to keep the government open beyond September 30th, the end of the fiscal year. However, this temporary fix will not satisfy the demands of the Freedom Caucus. McCarthy’s reliance on Democratic votes to pass important legislation is viewed as a significant problem for his leadership and sets the stage for the inevitable threat to his Speakership.

Conservatives within the GOP are determined to secure concessions in exchange for their support. The push for conservative demands has intensified, with some even calling for impeachment proceedings against President Joe Biden. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) acknowledged that a motion to vacate the Speaker’s seat is a possibility if McCarthy fails to address conservative concerns. It would only take a few votes to initiate such a motion, and with the support of Democrats, McCarthy’s position could be in jeopardy.

Not all conservatives are united in their stance against McCarthy. Some have anonymously expressed support for the Speaker, citing major concessions he has made that have allowed conservative members to take top committee posts and uncover concerning details about President Biden’s involvement in overseas business activities. This divide among conservatives adds complexity to the situation and highlights the lack of a coherent strategy within the GOP.

To maintain his grip on the Speakership, McCarthy will rely on surrogates like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who supported him during the Speaker election earlier this year. Greene has encouraged members of the House Freedom Caucus to engage in open dialogue with McCarthy, with the hope of crafting a more effective agenda for the next term of Congress.

Despite the challenges and threats to his leadership, McCarthy still has an opportunity to address the concerns of the conservative wing and salvage his position. However, he must navigate the delicate balance between meeting conservative demands and working with Democrats to pass essential legislation.

As the deadline for a new funding measure approaches, McCarthy’s time in the top spot is dwindling. Conservative representatives, like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), are urging their colleagues to take decisive action upon their return to Washington. Gaetz warns that if McCarthy obstructs impeachment proceedings, his tenure as Speaker may be cut short.

The coming weeks will be crucial for McCarthy and his leadership. He must seize the initiative and find a way to appease the conservative wing while maintaining some level of Democratic support. Failure to do so could have significant consequences for his Speakership.