There’s a new report out, and some big news comes with it.

Virginia, typically not considered a battleground state, is experiencing a surprising shift in the current election cycle. President Joe Biden, who won the state by a comfortable margin of over 10 points in the last election, now finds himself neck-and-neck with former President Donald Trump, according to a new Fox News survey of Virginia registered voters. Both candidates are tied at 48% in a head-to-head matchup, signaling a potential challenge for Biden in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent elections.

Biden’s support remains strong among key demographics, including Black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%). However, his lead among Black voters has decreased significantly from an 81-point advantage in 2020 to just 48 points in the current poll. Trump’s support has notably increased among Black voters, rising from 9% in 2020 to 25% now. Additionally, Trump enjoys solid backing from White evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%), and White voters (54%).

The report also highlights a tight race in a potential five-way contest, with Biden narrowly leading Trump by just one point, 42% to 41%. Other candidates in the mix include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (9%), Cornel West (2%), and Jill Stein (2%). Although these third-party candidates are not currently on the ballot in Virginia, their presence could influence the final outcome.

This should make everyone in Biden’s campaign sweat https://t.co/j2Yi3Gh6LH

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) June 6, 2024

Voter motivation is high, with two-thirds of Virginia voters indicating they are extremely motivated to vote in November. In this group, Biden holds a slight edge, pushing him over the 50% mark (51% Biden, 48% Trump). Despite this, more voters believe Trump would handle the economy better than Biden by a margin of 12 points, and Trump also leads on issues like immigration/border security and the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Interestingly, Trump’s recent conviction in the New York hush money case has not significantly swayed Virginia voters. Two-thirds of respondents say the conviction will not affect their vote, with over half indicating it won’t matter at all. Among those who say it does matter, Biden holds a 41-point lead.

Both Biden and Trump face negative favorability ratings in Virginia, with Biden underwater by 14 points (42% favorable, 56% unfavorable) and Trump by 12 points (43% favorable, 55% unfavorable). Notably, voters who view both candidates unfavorably tend to favor Biden by 17 points.

Governor Glenn Youngkin, Virginia’s first Republican governor since 2009, has a much better job performance rating than Biden, with 56% approval versus 40% disapproval. However, his support does not directly translate to Trump, as nearly 30% of Youngkin’s supporters back Biden.

The tight race in Virginia reflects a broader trend of increasing competitiveness in traditionally Democratic states. As Democratic pollster Chris Anderson notes, “Virginia is a must-win state for Biden, so a tight race here is going to require some serious defense from his campaign to hold it.”

Remember the Virginia area around DC is more blue than red but if the more Republican areas can get out the vote there could be a major upset.

However, remember with all polls, take them with a grain of salt because you just never know.

Fox reported the survey was conducted from June 1-4 by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), the Fox News Poll surveyed 1,107 registered voters in Virginia. The poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, providing a snapshot of a highly competitive race that could have significant implications for the 2024 election.