Political analyst Harry Enten recently appeared on CNN and made an interesting report.

He’s getting worried about Democrats, and Kamala Harris supporters are getting a little high on their own supply.

For example, we know that Kamala is paying internet influencers to promote her (click here for more on that), and he’s worried that people are getting caught up in their manufactured hype.

Enten, known for his political analysis, has highlighted three significant points of caution for liberals in regard to the current state of the race. The first is quite evident, and it revolves around President Trump. It seems pollsters have been consistently underestimating his level of support among voters. This isn’t a one-time occurrence. In 2016, they underestimated his backing by 9 points, and in 2020, by 5 points. This discrepancy was particularly notable in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

3 caution points for Democrats…

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024

To give you a clearer picture, if the difference between the current polls and the actual result is similar to what we saw in 2016 or 2020, Trump will be the victor. This is a critical point of caution that Democrats should take into consideration.

Enten’s second caution point is just as significant. Currently, Trump is at his most popular. This important fact has seemingly been overlooked. A candidate’s popularity is a fundamental factor in elections and should never be underestimated. Remember a few months ago Democrats were saying that Trump was too unpopular to be successful this cycle.

Shifting focus to Kamala Harris, she appears to have addressed the Democrats’ fundraising and voter enthusiasm issues. However, she hasn’t significantly affected the percentage of people who have committed to voting this November. This figure has remained relatively stable since May, lingering around 62-61 percent.

One funny thing that Enten didn’t point out were the details surrounding a recent NYT’s survey that was found to oversample those who would be likely to support Kamala.

I have a lot of respect for the people at the Times and hate being the guy who obsesses about the the crosstabs, but polling tends to be off when you have a lot of highly engaged liberal women oversampling, which is what happened in these three states in 2016

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) August 10, 2024

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