Despite lower hospitalization rates compared to past winters, a new wave of COVID-19 is washing over the US, detected by a surge in wastewater levels. This rise surpasses even the first Omicron peak, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“We’re seeing rates climb across the country,” says Amy Kirby, lead of the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System. Every state with available data now falls under “high” or “very high” viral activity categorization. Experts predict the peak could hit this week, with high transmission for at least another month.

However, unlike previous years, hospitalizations and deaths remain significantly lower. This is partly attributed to higher population immunity from vaccination and prior infections. Additionally, the decline in comprehensive data tracking since the federal public health emergency lifted makes case counts less relevant.

Wastewater testing stands as one of the few reliable tools left for monitoring the virus. It can detect surges before hospitalizations rise and captures asymptomatic individuals. For vulnerable populations, this data is crucial for understanding when to take extra precautions.

While revealing early whispers of surges, deciphering the nuances of wastewater data isn’t straightforward. The viral copies per milliliter, while seemingly precise, don’t directly translate to exact case counts. Comparing surges across years is also like juggling shadows – the virus evolves, methodologies vary, and national estimates, built on data gaps and site-specific testing inconsistencies, can be misleading phantoms.

“Focus on the trend, not the absolute numbers,” advises Dr. David Jones, an epidemiologist at NYU Langone. He recommends keeping a close eye on the recent data trajectory and, if possible, zooming in on local wastewater reports, which offer a more accurate picture than national overviews. Mask-wearing, staying up-to-date with vaccinations and boosters, and diligent testing remain crucial tools in our collective toolbox, especially when the viral tide is rising.

While the pandemic’s crisis phase might be over, the threat remains. As Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, emphasizes, “The pandemic is not over, and the threat is not over.” Vigilance and continued preventative measures are key to protecting ourselves and vulnerable individuals during this latest wave.