The Kremlin is facing a potential second rebellion as dissatisfied Russians plan to march on Moscow, according to reports. Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary, has claimed that protests are growing across Russia, with an impending “special military operation” in its 18th month.

In recent months, Russia has witnessed an upsurge in protests and dissent against the government. Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary, recently stated that the Kremlin is facing a looming second rebellion as dissatisfied Russians plan to march on Moscow. These protests are seen as a manifestation of the population’s frustration with the government and its policies.

According to Danilov, the current situation for the Kremlin is such that the desire for a second offensive on Kyiv will be overshadowed by the urgent need to prepare for a second march on Moscow. He further suggests that the next march is not too far off, implying that the discontent among the Russian people is reaching a tipping point. This sentiment is echoed by the increasing number of supporters of Ukraine challenging Russian military personnel in Crimea, which Russia captured in 2014.

A Russian Field poll conducted in mid-June revealed that 45% of Russians support the ongoing military operation in Ukraine, while 44% are opposed. However, this support may dwindle if it means drafting a new round of military forces, with the percentage dropping to 35%.  President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill allowing 30-year-olds to be drafted next year, a move aimed at avoiding another large-scale mobilization that could spark backlash. These statistics indicate a divided public opinion and the potential for further unrest if the situation in Ukraine escalates.

In late June, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, staged a revolt against Vladimir Putin’s government. The mercenaries occupied large areas of Russian territory, prompting a compromise negotiated by the president of Belarus. This revolt highlighted the growing dissatisfaction with the current regime and the potential for internal conflicts within Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military has been on a march forward, reclaiming large areas of territory that were occupied by Russia for months. The Ukrainian government has made it clear that it will not allow these “terrorists” to rest until they leave the country. Drone attacks in Russian territory have been defended by Danilov, who stated that Ukraine will destroy the aggressor where it deems necessary and will not seek permission from anyone. This resolute stance indicates Ukraine’s determination to protect its sovereignty and confront Russian aggression.

Apart from the ongoing military tensions, Ukraine is also grappling with diplomatic issues, particularly with Poland. In August, Poland blocked shipments of Ukrainian grain, prompting Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry to request a face-to-face meeting with the Polish ambassador in Kyiv. The Polish presidential aide, Marcin Pshidach, emphasized the need for Ukraine to appreciate Poland’s role in supporting its interests. In response, Danilov highlighted the historical ties between Ukraine and Poland and their shared goal of countering the influence of Moscow.

The growing unrest, protests, and potential second rebellion in Russia have significant implications for the region. It underscores the deep-seated dissatisfaction among the Russian population and their willingness to challenge the government’s actions. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces further exacerbate the tensions between the two countries. The revolt by the Wagner Group highlights the potential for internal conflicts within Russia and the strain on the current regime.

Additionally, the diplomatic tensions between Ukraine and Poland reflect the complex dynamics and competing interests in the region. As these tensions escalate, the stability and security of Eastern Europe become increasingly uncertain. The outcome of the potential second rebellion in Russia and its implications for the region have the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape.